PREparing for the Domino effect in crisis siTuation

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Project Summary

This summary is focused on the interests from the UIC-Members and gives them an overview about the main aspects and results from the PREDICT project.


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PREDICT is a research project in the Seventh Framework Programme for Research and Technological Development (FP7-SEC-2013.4.1-2 “Better understanding of the cascading effect in crisis situations in order to improve future response and preparedness and contribute to lower damages and other unfortunate consequences”), 6th transport call published in July 2012


The aim of the PREDICT project is to provide a comprehensive solution for dealing with cascading effects in multi-sectoral crisis situations covering aspects of critical infrastructures. The PREDICT solution will be composed of the following three pillars: methodologies, models and software tools. Their integrated use will increase the awareness and understanding of cascading effects by crisis response organisations, enhances their preparedness and improves their response capability to respond in case of cascading failures.

PREDICT project will start from a deep analysis of recent cases (over 8500 incidents worldwide), which will be accompanied with scenarios of potential crisis. Project partners will set up a generic approach (common framework) to prevent or mitigate cascading effects which will be applied in selected cases agreed with end-users. As modelling each phenomenon separately in a specific environment is not effective, PREDICT project will propose cohesive and comprehensive models of dependencies, cascading effects and common m ode failure which will include causal relations, multi-sectoral infrastructure elements and environment parameters, as well as the human factor aspects.


1 April 2014 - 31 March 2017


Leadership: CEA (France)
Partners: Fraunhofer (Germany), TNO (The Netherlands), VTT (Finland), CEIS (Belgium), ITTI(Italy) ,Thales Netherlands, VRZHZ (the Netherlands), SYKE (Finland) and UIC (France).

Benefits for rail

PREDICT will deliver software tools bundled in PREDICT Incident Evolution Tool, which will consist of two core components: a Foresight and Prediction Tool (for simulation of the evolution of cascading effect and impact on multi-sectoral dependencies) and a Decision-Support Tool (for determining the best course of action and to calculate the risk associated with them).

The high-quality of the developed solutions will also be assured by the strong involvement of end-users in the project. End-users will intervene at three levels: as partners of the consortium, as members of the Advisory Board, and representatives from relevant organisations across Europe invited to regular workshops.

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Tuesday 1 April 2014